Scientists at the Australian National University and partner institutions have released the Carbon Impacts Tracer, an online tool that converts a known quantity of carbon dioxide emissions into estimated climate damages across eight metrics — including heat exposure, European heatwave deaths, Great Barrier Reef coral loss, glacier decline and forgone food production.
The Guardian (opens in new tab) reports the team used the established Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (TCRE) relationship — about 0.45°C of warming per 1,000 billion tonnes of CO₂ — then mapped that warming increment onto peer-reviewed impact studies. Results are shown as best estimates within uncertainty ranges, with links back to the underlying papers.
As an example, researchers plugged in roughly 809 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent projected from expanding New South Wales’ Hunter Valley Operations coal mine through 2045. The tracer’s outputs include hundreds of thousands of people newly exposed to unprecedented heat and crop losses equivalent to the minimum dietary needs of more than 270,000 people each year, alongside other harm metrics. The NSW Independent Planning Commission was expected to decide on the project this week; Glencore, which co-owns the mine with Yancoal, did not respond to The Guardian (opens in new tab)’s request for comment.
AAP reports that the Australian National University and UNSW launched the tracer on Tuesday with analysis of five major fossil fuel projects in Queensland, NSW and Western Australia. According to the tool, emissions from Queensland’s Carmichael coal mine would expose an additional 2.8 million people to unprecedented heat, and Woodside’s Scarborough Energy Project off Western Australia an extra 516,000, based on its lifetime emissions. AAP noted the launch came one day before a decision was expected on the Hunter Valley Operations extension.
The mine’s owners set out their position in a Sept. 25 media release from Hunter Valley Operations, issued before the tracer was published and not a response to it. The release said more than 16,000 people had signed a letter of support for the continuation project, that the mine has a local workforce of 1,500 and directly contributed $6.9 billion to the economy over the past four years, and that amendments to the original proposal would cut scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions by 43%, fugitive emissions by 55% and diesel emissions by 30% over the project’s life. General manager Dave Foster said taxes and royalties from continued operations “will help support the Hunter as it transitions to a low carbon future.”
Prof. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of ANU said the aim is accountability, not a “blame game,” arguing that every tonne of CO₂ has measurable impacts. Maria Nawaz of UNSW’s Australian Climate Accountability Project said the tool could help rebut “drop in the ocean” defenses in climate litigation. Funding included the Minderoo Foundation; partners include the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century and the Lethal Humidity Global Council.
The Conversation essay by the researchers stresses the tool is open for anyone to test company, state or project emissions. Perkins-Kirkpatrick told The Guardian (opens in new tab) she accepts some may be sceptical of the results, but said they are “based on the best analysis published in the peer-reviewed literature.”