WFP: very strong El Niño ‘virtually certain’ for OND; record odds rise to 75%
September Global Seasonal Outlook cites 98% probability of RONI above +2.0°C in October–December; CNN says NOAA’s weekly strength metric already crossed ‘super’ threshold.
Climate
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Hawaii faces third close hurricane brush as Depression 15-E eyed to become Nolo
NHC forecasts a major-hurricane approach near the Big Island by Saturday under a supercharged Pacific El Niño season; flood watches are up and tropical alerts could be issued.
Indonesia wildfire emissions lead world as hotspots top 700,000
Copernicus data put early-September fire CO2 ahead of Russia; Nusantara Atlas counted about 734,000 hotspots amid a super-El Niño dry season.
Hurricane Polo drops to Cat 4 after Cat 5 peak off Mexico’s Pacific coast
NHC says the storm remains very powerful about 200 miles offshore; landfall not expected, but flooding and mudslide risks persist for southwest Mexico.
National Hurricane Center tracks tropical system in central Atlantic
Forecasters give a disturbance elevated odds of organizing; no coastal watches issued yet.