NYT/Siena poll: Collins edges Jackson in Maine Senate race

Among 619 likely voters Sept. 15–22, Susan Collins leads Troy Jackson 49%–46% within the margin of error; respondents still prefer Democratic Senate control 55%–43%.

Confirmed By Jordan Hale · Staff Writer — World & Politics Maine / United States Published Sep 24, 2026, 8:50 AM PT Updated Sep 24, 2026, 9:00 AM PT

A New York Times/Siena College poll of Maine likely voters conducted Sept. 15–22 put Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 49% and Democrat Troy Jackson at 46%, with about 5% undecided, within the survey’s roughly 4.9-point margin of error, according to the Siena Research Institute (opens in new tab) release and The Hill (opens in new tab).

Fox News (opens in new tab) reported that 55% of respondents preferred Democratic control of the Senate next year even as Collins led the head-to-head; the Siena package put that preference at 55%–43%. Jackson became the nominee after Graham Platner exited post-primary amid allegations he denied; Collins is seeking a sixth term in a state Trump lost in 2024, the cited outlets said.

The same NYT/Siena package also showed Democratic leads in New Hampshire (Chris Pappas 50%–John Sununu 45%) and Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed 49%–Mike Rogers 44%), Siena said. The Maine sample was 619 likely voters, in collaboration with the Portland Press Herald.

The Event Log treats the poll release as a confirmed event and notes the lead sits inside the margin of error; one poll does not settle November outcomes.