The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab (opens in new tab) projected Wednesday that this year’s unusually strong El Niño could lead to about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths over the June 2026–February 2027 window compared with a typical year, according to the lab’s release and reporting by Al Jazeera and the Associated Press.
Researchers estimate global land temperatures could run about 1.2°C (2.1°F) above normal, with extremely hot days roughly 44% more frequent than average. Modeled excess deaths concentrate in lower-income regions: about 66,800 across the Sahel (including roughly 31,400 in Nigeria), about 19,300 in Indonesia, 17,500–17,600 in Sudan, combined 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, 15,800 in India, and 13,300 in Brazil, per the lab and Al Jazeera roundup.
Co-founder Michael Greenstone said heat is especially dangerous where baseline temperatures are already high and adaptive capacity such as air conditioning is limited. Co-author Tamma Carleton described the event as a “postcard from our future,” arguing emergency cooling and planning investments could save lives now and later. The lab said it will update projections as El Niño evolves.
Al Jazeera/AP noted WMO messaging earlier in September that El Niño is virtually certain to continue through February 2027. The Event Log treats the 451,000 figure as a model projection with uncertainty, not a counted death toll.