Tropical Depression 15-E was more than 300 miles south-southeast of Hawaii’s Big Island early Wednesday and is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nolo later Wednesday and into a hurricane by Thursday night, CNN (opens in new tab) reported, citing the National Hurricane Center.
NHC guidance cited by CNN (opens in new tab) calls for the system’s closest approach to the Big Island on Saturday night as a potential Category 3 major hurricane, with the center possibly only about 50 miles from the southern shoreline. Tropical storm-force winds above 40 mph are likely and hurricane-force winds above 75 mph are possible on the Big Island’s south side Friday through at least Saturday, CNN (opens in new tab) said.
The Hurricane Center warned that “life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible” again on portions of the Big Island and Maui. Rainfall forecasts include 10 to 15 inches over the Big Island through Sunday with up to 35 inches in the steepest terrain, and 5 to 10 inches on Maui with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, according to CNN (opens in new tab)’s NHC summary. Dangerous seas are expected to peak Friday and Saturday.
CNN (opens in new tab) said Hawaii alone has already faced three tropical systems in less than a month earlier in the season’s count, and that a third hurricane coming within 100 miles of the main islands in one season would be the first such occurrence since at least the 1950s if the forecast verifies. Prior close approaches included Hurricane Lala (Category 1, mid-August) and Hurricane Lowell (Category 2, early September).
Forecasters and CNN (opens in new tab) attribute the hyperactive eastern and central Pacific season—18 named storms including three Category 5s so far—to a very strong El Niño layered on already warmer oceans. Tropical alerts for parts of Hawaii could be issued later Wednesday, CNN (opens in new tab) reported. Unspun treats intensity and exact track as developing forecasts.