University of Washington researchers reported in PLOS Climate (opens in new tab) on Wednesday, Sept. 23, that past emissions from the top 178 oil, gas, coal, and cement producers—often called carbon majors—will continue affecting climate for decades to centuries, according to the peer-reviewed paper (DOI 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001036), a UW News release, and Scienmag (opens in new tab) coverage.
Using the FaIR model through year 2500, lead author Dargan Frierson and colleagues said that even if emissions stop, Earth would remain about 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures because of already-emitted CO2. Frierson said warming attributable to carbon majors is calculable and relatively independent of future emissions pathways in their simulations, UW News reported.
In lower future-emissions scenarios, carbon majors account for a larger share of remaining warming above preindustrial levels; in high-emissions futures, new burning dominates the additional rise, but the absolute warming attributed to past major-producer emissions stays similar, the release said.
The Event Log notes the paper is framed for attribution and accountability debates and does not itself adjudicate lawsuits.