The World Food Programme’s Global Seasonal Outlook for September 2026 says a very strong El Niño—defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index above +2.0°C—is “virtually certain,” with a 98% probability during October–December, according to the report posted on ReliefWeb and its PDF attachment.
WFP says El Niño strengthened as the three-month RONI rose from +1.0°C (May–July) to +1.4°C (June–August) and is projected to peak in October–December. The outlook raises the probability of a record-breaking event (three-month RONI exceeding +2.5°C, surpassing events since 1950) from 69% to 75%. Ensemble median Niño 3.4 anomalies approach about +2.7°C at peak in the report’s September forecast graphics summary.
CNN (opens in new tab) reported on Sept. 14 that NOAA’s weekly RONI reading had reached 2.0°C above average—the agency threshold for “very strong,” also called “super” El Niño in popular usage—and that NOAA’s latest forecast gave a 75% chance the event would peak as the strongest since records began in 1950 by year-end. CNN (opens in new tab) noted weekly values capture rapid change while the three-month rolling average updates more slowly.
WFP highlights classic El Niño rainfall and temperature risks, including dryness signals for Indonesia and the Pacific at the start of the wet season and broader extreme wet/dry/hot probabilities for October–December. CNN (opens in new tab) separately linked the strong event to an active Pacific hurricane season, a quiet Atlantic season to date, and Indonesia’s wildfires. Both sources stress that strength raises the likelihood of certain impacts but does not guarantee them.
WFP projects gradual weakening after the OND peak, with sea-surface temperature anomalies returning toward neutral by April–June. Certainty language below is treated as agency forecast wording, not verified future outcomes.